Jonathan Von Tobel analyzes the biggest line moves from the opening numbers for Week 14 of the college football season.
Rivalry week is here in college football, and it is a bittersweet time.
We are finally inching closer to the first iteration of the 12-team College Football Playoff, but a great regular season is coming to a close. If this week is anything like last week, we’re in for a weekend of shocking results and great games.
College Football Week 14 Odds Report
Boise State has won nine straight games, but it has been nearly two months since the Broncos have looked consistently dominant. Boise State did not cover against Wyoming on Saturday to slip to 3-3 ATS in its last six games. Mixed in that stretch is the ridiculous cover against San José State. Regardless, the market pounced on the playoff hopeful Broncos at Circa Sports. Boise State opened as 16-point favorites on Sunday, and the consensus number is -20 as of Monday morning. This does not seem to be a support of the Broncos as it is a fade of the Beavers. Oregon State snapped its 0-5 SU & ATS slide with an outright win over Washington State over the weekend. The letdown of upsetting your lone conference foe and now hitting the road to take on a team that needs a win is massive. We also saw this total balloon by 5.5 points from the open at Circa. It would seem the market expects Boise State to name the score.
The rest advantage goes to San José State in this spot. The Spartans played a tough, wet contest with UNLV on Friday, and now they get the usual week off until hosting Stanford on Black Friday. The Cardinal are in a tougher spot not only because of having one fewer day of rest, but also because of the result against the Golden Bears of Cal. Stanford blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter The Big Game. It is a similar situation San José State found itself in on Friday, when it had to host UNLV after blowing the game against Boise State. Perhaps for those reasons – and a litany of others – those shape the market like SJSU this week. This number opened pick’em at Circa Sports, but the Spartans are now laying a full field goal. Bettors can expect better weather conditions this week as well, but the total has not moved from the opening number.
I won’t pretend to be an expert in the bitter rivalry between Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, but the market move on Sunday means this game is worth pointing out. Circa Sports opened this line at Western Michigan -5 with a 54.5 total. As of Monday morning, the Broncos are laying a full touchdown and the total is up three points. The Eagles are coming off a loss on Senior Night to Buffalo. It is the program’s fourth straight loss and fifth in six games. The team is 2-4 ATS over that stretch. Still, Western Michigan is not in the best form either, sporting an 0-3 SU and ATS record over its last three games. In fact, it lost last time out to Central Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. Despite that, the market deemed that the struggles of Eastern Michigan outweigh those of the home team, and we are sitting on a key number now.
Usually bettors will make the case for the team needing a win in the final week to clinch bowl eligibility. As if motivation is the only factor needed to win and cover a game. Michigan State is in that spot here against Rutgers, but the market deemed that the motivation of a bowl game was not enough. Bettors snatched up that opening line of a field goal and drove this down to -1 across the board. That should be enough to tell you what the market thinks of the Spartans right now. Michigan State won against Purdue to snap a three-game slide, but the Spartans still failed to cover. They have now failed to cover four straight and are 2-7 ATS in its last nine games. Rutgers is also coming to life right now. It pulled off upsets against Minnesota and Maryland before falling to Illinois over the weekend. Perhaps this is some support for the Scarlet Knights, but it seems somewhat obvious the market is done with Michigan State.
Totals can still have some strong volatility no matter how late into the season we get, but a move like this is very wild. Circa Sports opened this total at 52.5 on Sunday, but as of Monday morning it is a consensus number of 57 on the screen. Both programs here have been playing to the over this season, but not by much, as both teams are 7-4 to the over on the year. Neither team is good defensively. Tulsa is 129th in opponent EPA per play. Florida Atlantic is 108th in the same category. What sticks out is the pace both play with. The Golden Hurricane run the sixth-most plays per game at 75.7. The Owls average 69.6 which is 58th. There should be plenty of pace which means a lot of time for two bad defenses to allow points.
